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Technical Analysis
Mičánek, Filip ; Doubravský, Karel (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
This thesis deals with technical analysis, which is used to predict future development of stocks. The first part describes the theoretical background needed for the next section. This is followed by analysis of the current state, which assesses the current situation. The main part is devoted to the creation of a program to support technical analysis for the novice investor and the demonstration of its use in trading.
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Choosing the Appropriate Trading Strategy on Forex
Sedláček, Martin ; Macálka, Karel (referee) ; Sojka, Zdeněk (advisor)
This thesis deals with trading on the stock market using technical analysis. It’s focus is on choosing the appropriate trading strategy which make use of the knowledge of technical indicators. The thesis is divided into three main parts. The first part describes the theoretical basis of the work - a description of the financial market, the various indicators and monitoring methods of money management. The theoretical knowledge describes the stock market, which is being traded on, various methods of analysis and how they differ and different methods of trading. In the second part of this thesis it will apply these theoretical solutions into practice and it will analyze the market in a given period of time. In the last part I will propose and describe my own solution – a business strategy based on the obtained theoretical knowledge.
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Application of Fuzzy Logic for Evaluating Investments in Stock Markets
Šmerda, Patrik ; Janková, Zuzana (referee) ; Dostál, Petr (advisor)
The diploma thesis focuses on the application of fuzzy logic in constructing a decisionmaking model for evaluating investment opportunities in stock markets, with a specific emphasis on the selection of exchange-traded funds. The model is based on essential criteria that play a crucial role in the efficient selection of funds. These criteria are implemented in two decision-making models that have been developed using Microsoft Excel and MATLAB tools. The results obtained from these models provide a solid foundation for further steps in the investment decision-making process.
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Assessment of stock market efficiency and selection of a suitable investment strategy
SCHREIB, Vladimír
The work aims to approach the analysis of the efficiency of the stock markets and to create a suitable investment strategy, the result of which is the maximization of the possible return. The theory of efficient markets is based on the assumption that there are no stocks on the market that would be poorly valued, since all information is available and is immediately reflected in the share price. Based on that assumption, abnormally high profits that would exceed the market average cannot be achieved in the long term. Using statistical tests, the research compares the efficiency and performance of stock markets across stocks and indexes from around the world in the period from 2017 to 2021 and then selects an appropriate investment strategy using a passive, technical and fundamental strategy. The conclusion is that although the markets behave very differently, the overall efficiency could be described as weak. A passive portfolio investment was chosen as a suitable investment strategy.
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The Impact of Popular Sports Events on the Local Stock Markets
Konvičný, Martin ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
The diploma thesis studies the impact of hosting popular sports events and sports results on local stock market indexes and sponsors' stock using ARMA- GARCH and ARMA-DCC-GARCH models between January 2009 and May 2021. The empirical evidence shows that sports results positively affect the returns of emerging stock market indexes in some cases. However, hosting mega sports events has a limited impact on local financial markets. I did not observe any significant loss effect after defeats. According to research results, sports variables do not influence the stock variance. Despite controlling for dependencies related to soccer sentiment, significant interdependencies across Polish and Ukrainian stock market indexes still occurred. That implies other factors are driving the correlation between the stock markets. JEL Classification G41, D53, D81, C58, Z2 Keywords sports sentiment, stock markets, behavioral fi- nance, sports events Title The Impact of Popular Sports Events on the Lo- cal Stock Markets
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Stock Price Bubbles: Identification and the Effects of Monetary Policy
Koza, Oldřich ; Matějů, Jakub (advisor) ; Ryska, Pavel (referee)
This thesis studies bubbles in the U.S. stock market and how they are influenced by monetary policy pursued by the FED. Using Kalman filtering, the log-real price of S&P 500 is decomposed into a market-fundamentals component and a bubble component. The market-fundamentals component depends on the expected future dividends and the required rate of return, while the bubble component is treated as an unobserved state vector in the state-space model. The results suggest that, mainly in recent decades, the bubble has accounted for a substantial portion of S&P 500 price dynamics and might have played a significant role during major bull and bear markets. The innovation of this thesis is that it goes one step further and investigates the effects of monetary policy on both estimated components of S&P 500. For this purpose, the block- restriction VAR model is employed. The findings indicate that the decreasing interest rates have a significant short-term positive effect on the market-fundamentals component but not on the bubble. On the other hand, quantitative easing seems to have a positive effect on the bubble but not on the market-fundamentals component. Finally, the results suggest that the FED has not been successful at distinguishing between stock price movements due to fundamentals or the price misalignment.
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Economic analysis of moon phases on human behaviour
Klečková, Tereza ; Strielkowski, Wadim (advisor) ; Lelovská, Adriána (referee)
The moon and its lunar cycle is a theme that occurs in society since time immemorial. Does lunar cycle affect human life including its economic and social aspects? Do ordinary people and managers of large corporations act differently when the moon is full? Does consumer behavior change? Is at the time of the full moon rising crime and accidents? Can the effect of month on human behavior be scientifically tested? Although the above -mentioned topic may seem a bit bizarre I decided to process it in my thesis. Nowadays is popularization of science very important and widely used by for example the leading economic faculties of leading universities in the USA and the UK. This work attempts to answer the above questions and test the above mentioned context by using econometric methods. In this work we can read about the moon and myths and legends which are bind to it. The thesis presents several studies that have addressed the topic before, and their results. And then it will analyze available data from three basic areas of human behavior - crime, healthcare and business. The results which I reached are interesting and significantly confirm the influence of the lunar cycle in two of three selected aspects of human behavior - health and trade.
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Analysis of Interdependencies among Central European Stock Markets
Mašková, Jana ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to examine interdependencies among the stock markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Germany in the period 2008-2010. Two main methods are applied in the analysis. The first method is based on the use of high-frequency data and consists in the computation of realized correlations, which are then modeled using the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model. In addition, we employ realized bipower correlations, which should be robust to the presence of jumps in prices. The second method involves modeling of correlations by means of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model, which is applied to daily data. The results indicate that when high-frequency data are used, the correlations are biased towards zero (the so-called "Epps effect"). We also find quite significant differences between the dynamics of the correlations from the DCC-GARCH models and those of the realized correlations. Finally, we show that accuracy of the forecasts of correlations can be improved by combining results obtained from different models (HAR models for realized correlations, HAR models for realized bipower correlations, DCC-GARCH models).
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